13 December 2024

 

Authors: Boikanyo Moloto and Keamogetswe Seipato

 

2024 has often been dubbed THE election year. More than half of the world’s population headed to polling stations to cast their votes in 72 countries[1]. A moment that calls upon global citizens to reflect on the strength and quality of the democracies they find themselves in. Democracy has suffered significant setbacks in recent years, the youth in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region also find alternative ways of participation outside of the traditional political sphere[2]. In the region alone, six of the member states held elections this year, namely; South Africa (SA), Madagascar, Mozambique, Botswana, Mauritius and Namibia. The shifts attributed to longstanding socio-economic challenges combined with the 2024 election year, offer an opportunity to reflect on the democracies we find ourselves in, and to reimagine the democracy we’d like to build.

A Year of Elections: Regional Snapshots and Trends

SA celebrated 30 years of democracy in 2024. The general elections held on 29 May were widely contested and saw many firsts; 1) Independent candidates were able to run for national and provincial elections for the first time, 2) a third ballot was introduced to make provision for those amendments and 3) the African National Congress (ANC) failed to achieve an outright majority for the first time in three decades, introducing an era of a more collaborative politics with the subsequent formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU). This year’s elections saw a voter turnout of 58.64%[3] compared to the 2019’s turnout of 66.05%[4]. The continued decrease signalling exclusion, unrepresentative government and ultimately a loss of trust which threatens the legitimacy of a democracy. This compounded by the socio-economic challenges attached to being the most unequal country in the world.

Madagascar held its legislative elections on 29 May, following the presidential elections of November 2023. While the latter were surrounded by reports of intimidation, violent protests, political tensions and calls to boycott for up to six weeks, the African Union observers reported a ‘calm and serene atmosphere’[5] for this year’s elections. Provisional results published on 11 June, by the francophone country’s national electoral body, Commission Électorale Nationale Indépendante (CENI), showed that the ruling coalition Young Malagasies Determined, (also referred to as All Together with Andry Rajoelina) did not achieve a clear majority win[6]. The party was able to gain 80 seats out of the 163, while 52 seats went to independent candidates, and 24 seats[7] went to the main opposition coalition. Marked with reports of electoral fraud, irregularities, accusations of poor electoral management, the matter was referred to the High ConCourt which ruled on 27 June, that the ruling coalition had in fact maintained its majority with 84 seats[8]. Voter turnout was confirmed at 48.03%[9], a significant decline from 2018’s legislative elections which saw 53.9% voter turnout. Madagascar is considered one of the poorest countries in the world despite its natural resources. More than three quarters of the Madagascan population live below the poverty line.

The Mozambican public took to the polls on 09 October for their general elections. The electoral process in 2019 took place in the context of claims of intimidation of the opposition, assassination attempt and misuse of state funds by those in power.[10]. The 2024 elections took place during a time of high levels of discontent and calls for enhanced electoral transparency[11]. Reports indicate that the Mozambican Liberation Front (FRELIMO) won 195 of the 250 seats in the national assembly, holding on to its already firm grip on power for the 49th year. These results were followed by violent protests and killings, heavy-handed policing and allegations of vote rigging[12]. Voter turnout was at 50.95% compared to 51.41% in 2019[13]. Notably, over 50% of the voter register comprised of the youth. Mozambique is also a country that is marred with corruption, poverty and many other socio-economic challenges.

Botswana held their elections on 30 October. Africa’s oldest democracy, election results spread like wildfire when an opposition alliance, Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) won against the ruling party, Social-Conservative Botswana Democratic Party (BDP). This is the first time that BDP has lost power in 58 years. Despite a weakening economy, issues of under-unemployment, gender-based violence and alcoholism, the people of Botswana showed us that their democracy works. Voter turnout was 84% in 2019, and 81%[14] in 2024.

Mauritius decidedly took to the polls on 10 November handing a clear majority win to the opposition coalition, Alliance du Changement (ADC) with an astounding 60 out 62 directly elected national assembly seats[15]. Mauritius is considered one of Africa’s most stable democracies[16]. In 2019, voter turnout was 77.0%[17], and increased to 79.3%[18] this year, amidst the frustration and dissatisfaction that the public had towards the previous government, citing poor economic decisions and an increase in the cost of living.

Finally, Namibia held its elections on 27 November, closing off the election year for the SADC countries. As expected, the electoral process is not without its challenges, however Namibia was driven to extreme lengths when it extended the election period to 30 November. The voter turnout is reported to have been 75.68%[19], from the 60.4%[20] voters in 2019. Moreover, there have been many claims of electoral irregularities involving procedures during the extension. South West Africa People’s Organisation (SWAPO) was able to hold on to its majority with 51 seats[21].

From Electoral Snapshots to Deeper Democratic Reflections

As we approach the sunset of 2024, the several election moments and the varying maturing democracies across the globe are driving us to reflect on the state of democracy and political power. Honing in on the Southern Africa region, two paramount questions emerge; 1) how former liberation movements that contributed to inspiring hope and dismantling a type of colonialism have held on to political power for decades on end and, 2) the question of stability under the guise of stagnation or a soft form of repression. There is a pandora’s box of questions accompanying the abovementioned ones; is the sustained endurance of one political party in a democracy a sign of tried and tested leadership, or does it point out a serious aversion to political competition or opposition across the board? How do “forever rulers or freedom fighters” and their prolonged grip on power affect accountability, policy innovation/implementation, and the sense of political agency of the people, particularly by those too young to remember the revolutionary promises that once galvanized entire nations?

The year of elections has shown us that democracy is not linear and nothing is always guaranteed – S.A moved to coalitions politics at a national level and Botswana had their first change in leadership in 58 years. Change is indeed possible and gives encouragement to those who want to deepen democracy. A question that is central for a region like Southern Africa is how do we reconcile the revolutionary promises of yesterday, with the governance challenges of today?

This and the issue of declining voter turnout also raised concerns about the legitimacy of democracy when droves of voters decide not to take part in an electoral process. Although, there have been small glimmers of change driven by the demands for alternatives. For instance, the introduction of independent candidates at national level in the SA electoral system, or in what we have seen as major youth voter participation in Zambia, Zimbabwe, Botswana and recently Mozambique. However, these are overshadowed by the doubts in the democratic process that is fueled by critiques on the integrity and fairness of any of the elections.

Our intention is not to solely leave you with a never-ending whirlpool of questions. Rather to invite you to imagine and think in a way that invites complexity. Perhaps, low voter turnout is not a worrying indicator of the erosion of democracy, but it could be one of the very few ways poor and working-class people use their power by withholding their vote. Perhaps, the mistrust and disillusionment with democracy is linked to how people have not been able to see the ways in which they can use its building blocks to shift power and get the basic things they need. Perhaps, the critical work of civic education has stopped, and the focus has shifted to topical social issues, that need democracy to be dismantled.

Although elections are very important in a democracy, they are not the only tool of participation that democracy offers. In that sense, then questions around elections and democracy are not a signal of erosion but a signal of growth.  Including conversations on whether democracy is ‘fit for purpose’ for the context.  Perhaps these questions should not be seen as failures but rather as opportunities to talk, imagine and build differently.

The questions in the collective consciousness about democracy, broken promises and the very visceral failures of liberation movements should not be reasons for us to hide under the sand, or to only come out and shout on social media during an election cycle. The kind of democracy we have had thus far brought us out of oppression, but it was never enough. These questions are demanding that we all play a role in developing a democracy that takes us forward because building and maintaining a democracy is an ongoing project, that we all need to contribute to, in order to realise a democracy where the people shall govern.

 

References:

[1] https://www.undp.org/super-year-elections

[2] https://freedomhouse.org/article/why-are-youth-dissatisfied-democracy

[3] https://results.elections.org.za/dashboards/npe/

[4] https://results.elections.org.za/home/NPEPublicReports/699/Voter%20Turnout/National.pdf

[5] https://www.peaceau.org/uploads/preliminary-statement-aueom-madagascar-legislative-elections-2024-eng.pdf

[6] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/politics/madagascars-ruling-party-loses-parliamentary-majority/3248407

[7] https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2024/06/12/a-madagascar-andry-rajoelina-frole-la-majorite-absolue-a-l-assemblee-nationale-sur-fond-de-contestations_6239112_3212.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com

[8] https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/country/madagascar

[9] https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/country/madagascar

[10] https://gga.org/moz-election-tracker/

[11]https://www.eeas.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/2024/EU%20EOM%20Mozambique%202024%20Preliminary%20Statement%20EN.pdf

[12] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c14lzy75355o

[13] https://www.electionguide.org/countries/id/147/

[14] https://digital-client-solutions.hoganlovells.com/resources/elections-hub/jurisdiction/73?utm_source

[15] https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/mauritius-opposition-wins-626-votes-election-commission-says-2024-11-12/?utm_source

[16] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/11/12/opposition-secures-landslide-victory-in-mauritius-election

[17] https://data.ipu.org/parliament/MU/MU-LC01/election/MU-LC01-E20191107/?utm_source

[18] https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/mauritius-prime-minister-says-party-is-headed-defeat-sundays-vote-2024-11-11/?utm_source

[19] https://www.elections.na/NationalAssembly.aspx

[20] https://data.ipu.org/parliament/NA/NA-LC01/election/NA-LC01-E20191127/

[21] https://www.thetimes.com/world/africa/article/netumbo-nandi-ndaitwah-president-namibia-7kq6vmg0p?utm_source=chatgpt.com&region=global