Our Executive Director, Minhaj Jeenah pens his thoughts on the year ahead amidst the current political crisis.

Last week, President Cyril Ramaphosa delivered his Churchillian State of the Nation Address (SONA). Like the rest of us, he attempted to articulate the deepening crisis in our democracy. His was lacklustre, uninspiring and out-of-touch. A few days later, this annual gala of the political elite continued this course in the form of a Parliamentary debate on the President’s address.

Of course, this was not a moment for the political elite to reflect on our deepening poly-crisis. Nor was it an attempt to pave the road towards a viable society. For the governing party, it was an opportunity to present its plan to claw back its support from voters that have recognised its harrowing failures over the past 3 decades. For others, it was an attempt to offer their stale and crude politics as viable alternatives in the belief that that they will capture our imaginations. So, the SONA was to launch party campaigns as we move towards our most consequential elections since 1994.

To many of us, as the good life is pushed further from our reach, this SONA lays bare the extent of our political crisis. A crisis most clearly illustrated by a hole at the center our politics that has widened the gap between us and those we elect in positions of power.

New possibilities  

The 2021 Local Government Election (LGE) saw the lowest voter turnout ever and the ANC’s national share of the vote drop below 50% for the first time. We saw that many voters that had historically supported the ANC withheld their support for the party. And rather than supporting another party, they withheld their vote entirely.

The LGE and by-election results do indicate that we are moving away from the ANC being at the center of our politics. This dramatic shift may happen in the 2024 General Elections, where the party could lose its majority.

The problem is, it’s highly unlikely that there will a credible alternative to the ANC that would represent large sections of the electorate. Building these alternatives must gain momentum now, but will take years to materialise.

“At MVC, we’re calling this strategic voting. But more on this in the next few months.”

So, 2024 could mean an unstable national coalition government and worsened political instability.

The spectacle in the collapsing City of Joburg which gave rise to an obviously inept mayor last month, is an indication of the possible chaos that can unfold when no single party governs. But rather than seeing unstable coalitions as a failure of our multi-party democracy, it should be seen as an opportunity for voters. The Joburg (& Tshwane, & Nelson Mandela Bay) spectacle presents new possibilities to get government to submit to our demands. Coalitions intensify party competition, and because parties are more desperate for votes, people’s demands are likely to get more attention. Democracy at work.

At MVC, we’re calling this strategic voting. But more on this in the next few months.

Electoral reform and Money in Politics

Parliament is likely to adopt the Electoral Amendment Bill in the upcoming days. Right now, our priority is ensuring that there are no further delays that may disrupt the legitimacy of the 2024 elections. Parliament will also appoint an(other) “electoral reform consultation panel”, which will make recommendations on broader changes to the electoral system beyond 2024. We see this as a more substantive opportunity towards fundamental changes to our interim electoral system.

We also await the IEC’s report on the Audited Financial Statements of political parties, which could give us further clarity into who funds and influences our politics. Our campaign towards breaking up the toxic relationship between money and politics will intensify over the next year.

A moment of opportunity

This year, the political crisis was not just displayed on the red carpet outside Cape Town’s makeshift Parliament and at the spectacles in local government chambers. Two weeks ago, we were reminded (again) of one the greatest threats to our democracy. A whistle-blower reported to Abahlali baseMjondolo on the planned assassinations of two community activists in Xolobeni, Eastern Cape. This, after a vile charge led by the mayor of the Municipality against community activists in the area. MVC will continue to condemn the use of violence and murder by members of the political elite to silence activists for simply expressing their constitutional rights. This is especially a priority considering the possible implications of 2024.

Last month, we joined around 150 civil society representatives at the Social Justice Assembly. Amongst other things, the Assembly committed to working towards a people-centered democracy that works for human dignity. In this moment, the Assembly drew from our history to inspire hope and collective action. This moment is one of crisis but also of opportunity. This year, we will use this opportunity to work towards greater public accountability, people’s power and a deepened democracy.  Amongst other things, the Assembly committed to working towards a people-cent democracy that works for human dignity. In this moment, the Assembly drew from our history to inspire hope and collective action. This moment is one of crisis but also of opportunity. This year, we will use this opportunity to work towards greater public accountability, people’s power and a deepened democracy.